Europe’s wake-up call: General Trinquand on risks, defense and values

During the summer vacation, including today, thebrokernews podcasts are also taking a break. Instead, we will be showing interesting video interviews and podcasts with visionaries and trailblazers from all over the world.

In this interview, General Dominique Trinquand warns of Europe’s networked vulnerabilities. Submarine cables are the backbone of our digital world, climate change and migration are changing borders and powers, and European defense is still dependent on the USA. At the same time, the former head of the French UN mission is calling for more dialog, education and courage for Europe’s own defence capabilities.

From the cold war to a multipolar world

Trinquand makes it clear right from the start that the global order is in upheaval. After the fall of the Soviet Union, events were dominated by two superpowers, but with the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and the rise of the BRICS states, the pressure on Western dominance grew. “Putin wants to change the world,” warns the general, while China and other states are gaining influence with new trade routes and resource projects. Migration, drug trafficking and the international flow of goods are intertwining continents more than ever before. China produces around half of its industrial goods for Western customers. At the same time, young workers from Africa are flocking to Europe because the old continent is ageing demographically.

Climate change: borders are shifting, Schengen is becoming a limes

Climate change is reinforcing this dynamic. While colonial powers drew borders arbitrarily in the 19th and 20th centuries, states today accept them as a basis for dialog, such as the Schengen regime, which Trinquand compares to the limes of the Roman Empire. The general predicts that the melting North Pole will open up new sea routes and extreme weather will force migration. Europe must therefore secure its external borders and yet remain open to exchange: “War arises when there are no borders, like between Israel and Palestine.”

Trade flows, migration and drugs

Trinquand describes the three “currents” that shape our world as essential changes:

• Trade: China’s “New Silk Road” supplies Western markets, Europe’s economy depends on Chinese products.
• Migration: Young people from Africa and South America are emigrating to ageing societies in Europe and North America.
• Drugs: Cocaine from South America and opiates from the Middle East reach Western consumption centers.

These movements are strategic. Europe must learn to steer them instead of just complaining about producers.

Submarine cables: the Achilles tendon of digitalization

Trinquand’s assessment of the internet infrastructure caused a stir: around 97 percent of all global data travels through submarine cables. While the media often focus on satellites, the general and presenter explain that cables are preferred because of the lower delay. Cable ships are laying more and more cables, and France even owns two thirds of the cable ships deployed worldwide. Nevertheless, there is no absolute security: “Cutting a cable is easy, but then you also cut off your own communication,” warns Trinquand. Several redundant routes and satellites could limit interruptions. Nevertheless, the risk remains. He advises companies to rehearse the worst-case scenario: “Switch off your system and check how you continue to work.”

European defense: “We are spoiled children“

In the chapter on European defense, the general finds clear words. He recalls President Macron’s criticism of the “brain-dead” NATO and notes that the alliance was revived thanks to Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Nevertheless, he sees dependencies: 60 percent of military equipment in Europe comes from the USA. In his eyes, the 27-nation structure paralyzes quick decisions; instead of hoping for the outcome of the US election, Europeans should have built up their own defence. Paradoxically, Trinquand hoped that Donald Trump would win the election, as this would make Europe’s politicians aware of the urgency.

“We had 30 glorious years of growth, followed by 30 lazy years. “We are spoiled children,” he says. Europe must invest in joint armaments projects such as KNDS and the MGCS main battle tank, he says, and get the population involved in military service. He recommends that young officers adopt an attitude of ethics, training and physical toughness, because “life is a struggle”.

Artificial intelligence and ethical warfare

According to Trinquand, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East show that drones, robotic systems and AI-supported target selection are changing combat. While the US military is investing billions in new digital systems, he advocates caution: “The human must always be behind the system; the machine must not make the decision”. He warns against a “Terminator” fantasy in which autonomous weapons systems operate without human control.

The general reports of pilots who identify targets with the help of AI, but end up pulling the trigger themselves. Such decisions are stressful, he emphasizes, and require robust ethical training. Nevertheless, European armies must master the new technologies if they are not to fall behind authoritarian states.

Privatization of war – Starlink and Co.

Trinquand is critical of the growing power of private companies in the security sector. Elon Musk was able to provide the Ukrainian armed forces with fast data connections thanks to Starlink, but he also threatened to block the service in the event of certain attacks. “How can one man decide the fate of a country?” asks the general, recalling that the US government bore the costs. Europe needs its own satellite programs such as Galileo in order not to become dependent on private actors.

Europe’s position in AI and the cloud

When asked whether Europe is losing the race for artificial intelligence and cloud technologies, Trinquand gives a differentiated answer: The EU started late, but has first-class mathematicians and quantum researchers. The EU AI regulation is a world leader in regulation, but Europe lags behind the USA when it comes to investment. When it comes to the cloud, he warned against excessive dependence on US providers and Chinese services. French providers such as OVH or Orange have only played a minor role so far. In order to maintain sovereignty, Europe must develop its own infrastructures.

Values, education and resilience

Trinquand concludes the interview with a passionate plea for education. Using personal stories – his father was killed in Algeria, his grandfather survived Auschwitz – he emphasizes how hard European freedom was fought for. Philosophy lessons and a knowledge of history are necessary to recognize fake news and propaganda.

He is against a “woke” attitude that relativizes everything and at the same time against totalitarian tendencies. Young Europeans need to understand that their freedoms cannot be taken for granted. “Bring children into the world, they will change it,” he urges, reminding us that generations before us fought for democracy and prosperity.

Even in times of social media, the general advises resisting the temptation of one-sided channels. Whether at protests at elite universities or in international politics. Listening and dialog with those who think differently are essential, even when it becomes uncomfortable.

Building peace and reforming the UN

As a former UN diplomat, Trinquand defends the United Nations. Despite justified criticism, the UN is a unique forum in which 193 states can talk to each other on a daily basis. He calls for a reform of the Security Council, an expansion of the number of permanent seats and a restriction of the right of veto. Anyone aspiring to a career in international organizations should embrace cultural diversity without being naive.

“The future is only the organized present,” Trinquand quotes Antoine de Saint-Exupéry. If Europe defends its values, builds up its defense capability and seeks dialogue, it could remain a role model for other regions.

This article summarizes the central statements of General Dominique Trinquand: He explains why Europe’s digital infrastructure is so vulnerable via undersea cables, describes the new geopolitical balance of power and calls for more self-reliance in defense and technology. He also emphasizes the importance of education and communicating values in order to counter fake news and propaganda.

Binci Heeb

Listen and read also: Rethinking risk: How Steve Arora sees disruption changing the insurance industry