Insurance industry 2030: Between risk, regulation and resilience

Digitalization, climate change and geopolitical instability are fundamentally changing the insurance industry’s business model. At IVW Future.Talk 2/2025, industry experts discussed how insurers can prepare for the future – and what has not worked so far.

To kick off the Future.talk, Prof. Dr. Martin Eling from the University of St. Gallen presented key findings from the new “Insurance 2030” study. His review shows that many trends that were once considered revolutionary have fallen short of expectations. Neither online sales nor peer-to-peer insurance models or blockchain solutions have prevailed.

“There are simple, standardized products that can be sold online. But when things get more complex, personal advice is still required,” says Eling. Instead of disruptive upheavals, a pattern is emerging: innovation complements established practices, but rarely replaces them.

Tech trends in a reality check

Martin Thormählen, CTO of Munich Re, provided insights into the recently published Tech Trend Radar 2025, with the topic of AI standing out in particular. The hype surrounding so-called AI agents is huge, but the reality is often far removed from this: “Many people talk about autonomous agents, but what they often mean are automated workflows,” said Thormählen. A real game changer, on the other hand, is the combination of AI and customer interaction, for example in document processing or intelligent claims management.

Cyber resilience remains a key issue. Thormählen warned urgently: “The question is not whether you will be attacked, but how quickly you will be able to function again afterwards.” Cyber insurance is currently still a niche market, but could become the largest sector in the industry by 2036.

Between risk and responsibility

Alexandra Burns from PwC introduced a risk perspective with the Insurance Banana Skins Report. Her assessment: “The insurance industry has had too little presence in public discourse to date – yet we have valuable data and insights to offer.” Regulatory requirements such as DORA or the AI Act not only pose challenges, but also offer opportunities for a more strategic positioning of the industry.

In the panel, Monika Sebold-Bender, independent non-executive director of various insurers, emphasized that the technical debt burden of many insurers is a key obstacle to transformation. “When COBOL programmers retire, modernization is difficult. At the same time, we need to understand our systems better in order to respond resiliently to change.”

Focus on future topics

In a live survey, participants rated seven future topics according to their potential for change and degree of maturity. Unsurprisingly, the frontrunners were big data, AI and cyber insurance. Embedded insurance and open insurance were rated more skeptically. Many still see too many technological and regulatory hurdles here.

Eling drew a sober conclusion: “Despite all the crises, the insurance industry is actually doing well. But change is not a sure-fire success. What is missing is a more active role in dialog with politics and society.”

The insurance industry in 2030 will not be shaped by individual technological breakthroughs, but by the ability to organize resilience through smart governance, integrated technologies and bolder societal positioning.

Binci Heeb

Read also: Future.talk: Is the customer really the focus?